Background
Hong Kong was a British colony in between 1842 and 1997 and still maintains a western influenced economy and political system which has led the city to become a top class metropolis and an economic powerhouse worldwide. When Hong Kong was handed back to China, the Chinese government pledged it would not make significant changes to the cities laws and government for the next 50 years to allow Hong Hong a smoother transition back to the mainland under the premise of ‘One Country, Two Systems’. We are now almost halfway through that period and in my opinion the situation looks pretty grim for Hong Kong. China has grown exponentially both militarily and economically since the former colony was handed over and the mainland government now sees the city as more of a threat to their grip on power than a gateway to the rest of the world.
Since Hong Kong’s return to the mainlands control the Chinese government used the city as a financial hub to open itself up to the world, back then Shanghai and Beijing were light years away from Hong Kong. Given China’s rapid development, the country is no longer as dependent on Hong Kong, hence why they are stepping up pressure on the city to integrate it further to mainland laws and way of life without impacting the economy drastically. For a couple of years now the Communist Party has started curving its political influence in the city with gradual measures to not upset locals and it seemed to be working. The education system was also a target to indoctrinate pupils with government propaganda and push them away from western values the party has fought so hard to keep out of the mainland.
Present
In June 2019 proposals to allow extradition of Hong Kong citizens to the mainland erupted in protests that are still running (October 2019) and show no signs of stopping anytime soon. Chief Executive Carrie Lam withdrew the bill but protests have continued under demands for greater democracy, investigations into police incidents against protesters and calls for the mainland to withdraw legislation that Hongkongers see as full on attacks to their rights and liberties. Most of the mainland is blinded to what is going on in Hong Kong since the Chinese government has an extremely tight grip on all the information entering and leaving the country (except Hong Kong).
The longer the protests against the Communist Party last in Hong Kong, the chance of the party punishing the city severely increase. The reason why the Party has such a tight control over the education and political system as well as the flow of information inside the mainland is because they fear losing control; with its freedom of speech and other western traits, Hong Kong is a direct threat to their rule.
Mass gatherings are strictly monitored and protests are squashed in the mainland to avoid situations like the one in Hong Kong. The Communist Party has been extremely permissive with Hong Kong from their point of view and I believe if a solution is not found soon they will be forced to take extraordinary measures.
Shenzhen, a city that borders Hong Kong has seen a large increase of chinese military personnel and warfare has raised alarms since a military intervention would most likely change if not damage Hong Kong irrevocable. Many fear the party will pull a Tiananmen Square move like they did in 1989 when they crushed protests that were estimated to have a million participants at its highest point. The attack from the government on these civilians left hundreds of people dead or missing and thousands of wounded. The government also erased this scene from chinese history and most chinese remain ignorant to that cruel episode. I’m sure the party has learned lessons from Tiananmen as well as from uncountable other protests and rebellions around the country, but as Carrie Lam warned the people of Hong Kong, a military intervention from the mainland is not ruled out.
Sooner than later we will see a significant development in the city and I hope its a positive and peaceful one for its residents since Hong Kong is one of the world’s most iconic and developed cities. However, and I hope that I am wrong but given the size and growing power of the Communist Party I unfortunately contemplate that they city will be completely absorbed by the mainland like a whale does with a school of fish. I do not see the Party ever allowing the mainland to have freedoms anywhere close to the ones Hongkongers enjoy today and eventually the Party will not want to deal with any threats close to home that will destabilize its rule.
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